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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, October 14, 2021

SPC Oct 15, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible tonight from northeastern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley region, and across portions of Oklahoma. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding convective evolution remain. High-PW plume continues ahead of the front from the lower MS Valley into the Midwest region. An apparent weak mid-level disturbance is lifting northeast along this corridor and should continue to aid convection through sunrise. Given the strength of the wind field will maintain low probabilities for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado. Upstream, mid-level height falls will be noted across the central Plains ahead of a short-wave trough. This feature will encourage a cold front to surge south across the High Plains which should aid convergence for convective development later this evening. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited modest buoyancy, but notably capped at 850mb. As a result, scattered elevated thunderstorms should spread east-northeast later tonight with some potential for marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 10/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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