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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, October 14, 2021

SPC Oct 14, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Risk for isolated severe storms will likely evolve within an area focused across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys Friday and into Friday evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail and a tornado or two. ...Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid South... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Friday morning ahead of an eastward-migrating mid-level trough located over the central U.S. A surface front will be draped from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Ozarks. As the upper system advances, two weak areas of low pressure will move across the OH Valley and Ozarks/MS Valley during the day. Moist, southerly low-level flow will result in a reservoir of 60s dewpoints across the OH Valley and lower 70s over the lower MS Valley. Despite the presence of considerable cloud cover and scattered areas of convection, model guidance indicates 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to develop by mid afternoon. As increasingly strong deep-layer flow overspreads the risk area with time, organized/severe storms will gradually increase, maximizing through the afternoon and early evening. Organized multicells clusters and a couple of supercells are forecast from the OH Valley southwestward to the TN/AR/KY/MO border vicinity. Damaging winds will likely remain the primary severe risk, but a tornado is possible if a supercell or two can develop near the surface low over the OH Valley. The tornado risk may also focus farther southwest over western TN where long hodographs and moist low levels may support a higher concentration of low-level mesocyclone potential. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates will likely limit hail growth with only isolated hail coverage expected. As the main ascent shifts east-northeastward into the evening, the frontal band of storms crossing the Tennessee Valley area should weaken, as it advances across the central Gulf Coast states. Meanwhile though, the severe threat may linger well into the evening across areas bordering the mid and upper Ohio Valley, before diminishing gradually after midnight. ..Smith.. 10/14/2021 Read more LIVE: