SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the Lower 48 states on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-upper cyclone,situated over south-central Canada, will gradually move away from the Midwest and a weakening cold front will push east across the parts of the Midwest with the trailing portion of the boundary located over the central Great Plains. A cyclonic belt of mid-level flow will be maintained across the central U.S. as another speed max moves southeastward from the Intermountain West into the southern Great Plains by early Friday morning. As this upper feature reaches the southern Rockies by early evening, a weak frontal low will begin to organize over the southern High Plains vicinity, and then develop northeastward along the front through the second half of the period. By Friday morning, the low will reach the Ozarks with a trailing cold front extending southwestward and bisecting OK into northwest TX. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing near/ahead of this evolving baroclinic zone -- from the Great Lakes/Midwest southwestward into the southern Plains. However, at this time it appears that limited instability across the region will temper storm intensity overall. ...OK Thursday night... Model guidance shows the progression of an arctic and pacific cold front into the state by early evening. Relatively weak low-level southerly flow will maintain a reservoir of 60s dewpoints and generally weak buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Model guidance indicates a cluster of convection may develop late as large-scale ascent associated with the upstream disturbance and frontal lift protrude on the airmass over central OK. It remains unclear/uncertain whether a few stronger storms will develop from this activity late Thursday night. Will defer the possible introduction of low-severe probabilities to later outlook updates. ..Smith.. 10/13/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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