SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Several tornadoes, some of which may be strong, along with destructive hail and wind are possible. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale forcing has progressed to the western edge of returning moisture across the central High Plains. This is reflected in latest radar/satellite imagery where deep convection, in the form of a squall line, has emerged from southwestern NE-CO/KS border-northwestern TX Panhandle. A very narrow corridor of higher-quality boundary-layer moisture extends across western KS into the northern portions of this maturing squall line. Over the next few hours buoyancy will improve ahead of the convection which should aid further upscale growth of this linear MCS. Wind profiles certainly favor supercells but convection has responded in a linear fashion, and this will likely be the predominant storm mode the rest of tonight. 00z sounding from DDC was strongly capped and pre-frontal activity may be difficult in the absence of higher surface dew points. Farther south across the southern High Plains, maritime tropical air mass has advanced into extreme southwestern OK where surface dew points are in the lower 70s. This has aided a few discrete supercells within a strongly sheared environment. As this moisture advances across western OK into southwestern KS there is some concern that additional supercells will develop ahead of the main squall line. This is the primary corridor for significant severe thunderstorms overnight, including tornadoes, wind, and hail. With time, forced squall line should propagate east across the central/southern Plains possibly advancing to the I-35 corridor over OK by sunrise. ..Darrow.. 10/13/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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