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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, October 11, 2021

SPC Oct 12, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, remain possible across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. ...01z Update... Upper short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across IL this evening with two responsive corridors of convection remaining ahead of this feature. The lead MCS is not particularly organized but currently extends from central lake MI-southwest lower MI-northeast IN. Along this zone, an arcing band of strong storms has produced damaging winds at times and is surging toward the Grand Rapids area. The secondary more organized line of convection has evolved immediately ahead of the upper vort from northern-eastern IL. Greater vorticity ahead of this feature likely contributed to a few tornadoes earlier this afternoon across central IL. However, 00z soundings from this region do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy, mostly due to poor sampling. While the lead MCS has overturned much of the available air mass, adequate buoyancy likely remains across northeast IL/eastern WI for this activity to continue organized, especially given the large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave. Primary risk will be locally damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 10/12/2021 Read more LIVE: