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Monday, October 11, 2021

SPC Oct 11, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening/overnight across portions of the central and southern Plains, where an all-hazards severe risk is anticipated. ...Central/Southern Plains... A potent upper low/trough is forecast to pivot northeast from the Four Corners vicinity into the central Plains on Tuesday, bringing a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, deepening low pressure will track across the central Rockies into NE/SD while a cold front sharpens and shifts east across NE/KS into OK/TX during the evening/overnight period. An initial dry and stable boundary-layer will quickly moisten through the day as southerly low-level return flow strengthens in response to lee cyclogenesis. While guidance varies, some daytime threat for elevated convection will exist across central/northern TX in the strong warm advection regime, and a broad Marginal risk has been expanded across this region. As large-scale forcing increases toward 00z, convection is expected to develop near the surface low southward along the cold front from western NE/KS into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. At this time, forecast guidance maintains at least weak low-level inhibition. Nevertheless, strong forcing coupled with intense low/midlevel flow and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s as far north a the NE/KS border will support rapid development of organized convection near the cold front. Given strong forcing along the cold front, convection likely will become linear quickly. Supercell wind profiles from KS southward will still support rotating cells within the line with an accompanying threat for large hail and a couple of tornadoes in addition to damaging gusts. A narrow corridor may exist across parts of southern KS into northwest OK such that if deeper moisture arrives earlier (as suggested by at least some guidance), some increased potential for significant gusts (65+ kt) and/or greater tornado threat could materialize. However, uncertainty is too great at this time to include SIG wind/higher tornado probabilities and trends will be monitored. A well-organized squall line is expected to shift eastward across KS/OK/TX through the overnight period with an accompanying threat for wind/hail and a couple of tornadoes. The severe threat will diminish with northward extent across NE/SD where greater instability will be limited by weak moisture return compared to further south. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer flow and steep midlevel lapse rates will support a threat for hail and damaging gusts with stronger storms during the evening/overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 10/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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