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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, October 10, 2021

SPC Oct 11, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, widespread damaging wind gusts, and large hail remain possible this evening into late tonight for portions of Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks. ...OK and north/central TX into the Ozarks... Intense thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this evening from northwest TX into central OK, in response to a strong midlevel shortwave trough that is ejecting into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase as the low-level jet continues to strengthen and a surface boundary surges eastward. Rich low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy, combined with increasingly strong wind profiles, will continue to support embedded supercell structures capable of tornadoes into mid/late evening, including the potential for a strong tornado or two, along with localized very large hail. An increasing threat for widespread damaging wind is also expected later tonight across central/eastern OK and portions of north TX, as convection grows upscale with time, while some tornado threat (from both QLCS circulations and embedded supercells) will persist into late tonight given the maintenance of very strong low-level shear. ...Portions of the Great Lakes... A few strong storms may persist until around 02-03Z across western Lake Superior and adjacent portions of upper MI, but any severe threat is expected to wane quickly with time this evening. Additional convection is possible late tonight further east near northern Lake Michigan and adjacent portions of WI/lower and upper MI, though the severe threat is expected to remain low. ..Dean.. 10/11/2021 Read more LIVE:
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)