SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds from Oklahoma eastward through the Ozarks today. ...OK into the Ozarks... A mid-level trough initially over the Upper Midwest will translate eastward into the Great Lakes during the period. An associated cold front will push east across the western Great Lakes through the evening while the trailing portion of the front moves south through OK during the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing this morning across KS and MO in the vicinity of the boundary. A seasonably moist airmass, characterized by upper 60s to 70s surface dewpoints, will destabilize during the day to the south of the boundary. Storm rejuvenation and/or development will be concurrent with peak heating. The stronger flow will glance the mid MS Valley region with weaker flow farther southwest where the influence of a mid-level anticyclone will remain across the southern U.S. Expecting several clusters of strong to locally severe thunderstorms to develop over MO during the day and subsequently over OK by the late afternoon. Steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW will favor isolated damaging gusts with the stronger downdrafts. This activity will likely weaken by evening coinciding with the loss of heating. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are forecast for the southern Rockies, FL and the northern Gulf Coast, and the Great Lakes during the day. Elevated storms are possible overnight across parts of NE. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 09/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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