SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing mainly damaging winds appear possible across parts of the southern Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over central Canada and the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will move eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday. Farther south, an upper high centered over the lower MS Valley is forecast to remain nearly stationary. At the surface, a weak low over WI should develop northeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with a trailing cold front moving south-southeastward across the southern Plains to mid MS Valley. A rather moist low-level airmass will be present ahead of the front from OK to eastern MO and southern IL, and scattered to numerous storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across KS into central MO. Diurnal heating of this airmass to the south of this early day convection should foster weak to moderate instability across the warm sector by Saturday afternoon. Stronger mid-level westerly flow associated with the upper trough should be present from southern MO to the mid MS Valley, with winds becoming gradually weaker with southward extent into OK/AR. Although marginal, deep-layer shear will probably be sufficient along the length of the front to support a few multicell clusters. With low-level lapse rates becoming steepened though daytime heating, some of these storms may be capable of producing isolated strong to damaging winds as they move east-southeastward Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Much of the southern/central High Plains will be in a weak low-level upslope flow regime to the north of the cold front on Saturday. With the upper trough moving away from this region, large-scale ascent appears nebulous, and overall convective coverage will likely remain fairly isolated north of the front through the day. There are some indications that low-level moisture return will occur Saturday night, and a couple elevated storms may develop in a modest low-level warm advection regime. At this point, forecast instability appears too weak to support much more than a small hail threat if any storms form overnight. ..Gleason.. 09/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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