SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula will begin to eject slowly east later tonight. Greatest buoyancy ahead of this feature currently extends across northern Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM where 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE is noted at TUS/EPZ. With large-scale forcing for ascent not expected to be that significant north of the international border overnight, boundary-layer cooling should result in gradual weakening of ongoing convection. While brief gusty winds, or perhaps small hail, could be noted with the strongest updrafts for the next hour or so, severe threat appears low tonight. Elsewhere, weak convection is expected beneath the upper trough from northern Lake MI toward Lake ON. Some of this lake convection could generate a few lightning flashes. Later tonight, a few elevated thunderstorms could evolve over portions of New England in response to the approaching upper trough. ..Darrow.. 09/26/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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