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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, September 24, 2021

SPC Sep 24, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely across the Lower 48 on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper-air pattern will feature strong cyclonic flow from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from Lake Erie northeastward down the St. Lawrence Valley. Low pressure will develop over ME during the day, shifting into Canada after 00Z while deepening. A cold front will extend south from the low over the western Atlantic, curling westward across southern FL and becoming stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico. While early day showers and a few thunderstorms may occur over ME, instability is forecast to remain too weak for severe storms prior to frontal passage. To the west, a weaker upper low will drift east across the lower CO Valley, providing cool midlevel temperatures and modest southerly flow aloft over eastern AZ and western NM. Heating will result in MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and this may favor a few strong storms during the afternoon. Neither shear nor instability are expected to favor severe weather, although a few strong storms may yield small hail and gusty winds from AZ into western NM. ..Jewell.. 09/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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