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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

SPC Sep 21, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible this afternoon into early evening over portions of far southeast Arkansas into northern Louisiana, east Texas, and western Mississippi. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes were made to the latest forecast. The northernmost portions of the Marginal risk across central AR were trimmed given convective overturning over this area. Cold pool mergers have supported a modest consolidation of pulse-cellular storms into line segments, and these will pose the greatest risk for a damaging gust or two through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening, before nocturnal cooling sets in. Please refer to MCD 1774 for more details. ..Squitieri.. 09/21/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021/ A large upper trough extends from the western Great Lakes region into the southern Plains today, with a strong cold front stretching from IN to TX. This front will continue to sag southward into the Arklatex region, where a very moist and unstable air mass is present. Scattered thunderstorms have already begun to develop along the front in AR, with further development expected through the afternoon into northern LA and east TX. Hot and humid surface conditions, coupled with strengthening mid-level winds and increasing large scale forcing, may result in a few intense cells this afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. A few CAM solutions suggest a more organized cluster of storms will persist across southern AR into northern MS this evening, with a continued threat of isolated damaging wind gusts. Read more LIVE: