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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, September 20, 2021

SPC Sep 20, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly across parts of the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection has increased in coverage/intensity over the past 1 to 2 hours across northern Minnesota, ahead of the advancing cold front, and across the high Plains of eastern Wyoming and into adjacent western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. A few storms have also developed over portions of central Nebraska, near a weak surface trough. As the upper trough -- and in tandem, the surface front -- continues to advance eastward tonight, further increases in convection will occur. As high-based storms spread eastward toward the central Dakotas, sub-cloud evaporation may contribute to gusty winds, with gusts possibly reaching severe levels in a few areas. Meanwhile, increasing convection near the aforementioned surface boundaries may also intensify locally to severe levels, with gusty winds and marginal hail possible with a stronger storm or two. However, overall risk should remain limited in coverage and marginal in nature, hence continuation of the MRGL risk across this region. ..Goss.. 09/20/2021 Read more LIVE: