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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, September 2, 2021

SPC Sep 2, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Friday across portions of the northern/central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high should remain over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley on Friday, while an upper trough moves eastward from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a weak low should develop slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest as an attendant cold front sags slowly southward over the central Plains. West-southwesterly mid-level winds are forecast to strengthen across parts of the northern/central High Plains as the upper trough moves over this region. ...Northern/Central High Plains... A weak low-level post-frontal upslope flow regime and ascent preceding the upper trough should encourage convective development across the higher terrain adjacent to the northern/central High Plains by early Friday afternoon. Low-level moisture should remain relatively modest to the north of the cold front, but it will probably be sufficient in tandem with diurnal heating to support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually strengthen through the day and become supportive of updraft organization. A mix of multicells and marginal supercells appears possible as storms move eastward across this region. Both isolated large hail and severe wind gusts may occur before storms weaken with eastward extent across western NE/KS Friday evening as instability quickly wanes. ...Kansas/Missouri... Storms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A lingering low-end severe threat may persist with this activity through mid morning before the convection eventually weakens as it continues eastward into MO. Other isolated to scattered storms will probably form Friday afternoon along the length of the front across KS and perhaps eventually into MO. Rich low-level moisture south of the boundary and daytime heating should promote at least moderate instability from parts of southeastern CO across KS and perhaps parts of western MO. Mid-level winds should not be as strong over this region compared to locations farther north in closer proximity to the upper trough. Even so, there should be enough veering and modest strengthening of the winds through mid-levels to foster sufficient deep-layer shear for modest storm organization. Isolated hail and severe winds may occur with the strongest storms. Storm coverage should increase Friday evening/night along and north of the front as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. A few of these storms could be strong enough to produce marginally severe hail. ..Gleason.. 09/02/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov