SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are expected across parts of the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota from late Sunday afternoon onward, along with low-probability severe risk with a couple of stronger storms. ...Synopsis... While a weak upper-level circulation center drifts northward across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley within the broader eastern U.S. ridge, a large-scale upper trough is forecast to advance across the West. At the surface, a seasonably strong cold front is progged to advance southeastward across the Intermountain West and eastward into the northern -- at later the central -- Plains states through the end of the period. ...Eastern Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska to Minnesota/northwestern Iowa... As the aforementioned surface cold front advances across the Dakotas/Nebraska through the day, a capped pre-frontal warm sector should largely preclude surface-based convection. Most of the showers and storms should remain elevated, to the west of the advancing front. Eventually, a couple of late afternoon or evening storms may develop near the boundary -- in the eastern Dakotas/northern and western Minnesota vicinity, where hail and strong/gusty winds may approach severe levels in a couple of spots. Overnight, convection is expected to increase in coverage -- particularly behind but also along the front -- as the upper system advances eastward. As such, despite diminishing instability, risk for a few stronger storms becoming briefly severe may persist through the end of the period. ..Goss/Moore.. 09/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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