Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe storm potential should remain low across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as an upper trough moves inland from the Pacific Coast over the western states. As this upper trough advances eastward across the northern/central Plains on Day 5/Monday, low-level moisture should increase ahead of a surface cold front. Some severe potential may be realized on Monday with convection along/ahead of the front across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest, but instability appears fairly weak. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across much of the MS Valley and Great Lakes through Day 7/Wednesday, with some potential for it to develop into a closed low. Any appreciable severe threat would remain confined along/east of the surface cold front attendant to the upper trough/low. The strongest mid-level flow and related shear may tend to lag the cold front, and instability is also forecast to remain rather weak. At this point, the potential for widespread organized severe storms from Day 5/Monday onward appears fairly low, but predictability also remains a concern. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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