Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe potential across the CONUS appears low this upcoming weekend as an upper ridge moves slowly eastward from the central to eastern CONUS. Farther west, a large-scale upper trough should gradually amplify while moving eastward across the western CONUS. This upper trough is forecast to eventually eject from the Rockies across the Plains and MS Valley from the early to middle part of next week. Low-level moisture should return northward across these regions ahead of the upper trough. Some increase in organized severe potential is possible from Day 6/Monday through the end of the forecast period. However, the upper trough may evolve into a closed low while moving slowly over the Plains. If this occurs, then the stronger mid-level winds would tend to remain to the cool side of the related surface cold front, which would limit severe potential. Regardless, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper trough/low early next week, suggesting low predictability. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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