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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, September 10, 2021

SPC Sep 10, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible from thunderstorms today, over portions of the interior Northwest to northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will eject northeastward from northern CA toward eastern OR and ID by tonight, as an associated cold front moves eastward across the Great Basin. A pronounced band of precipitation precedes the midlevel wave from northwest NV northward into OR. A narrow zone of surface heating/destabilization may occur behind this band and near the midlevel vorticity center late this afternoon across southern and eastern OR, where a few strong-marginally severe storms with hail/wind may develop. Farther east, modest low-midlevel moisture and daytime heating will support weak buoyancy and inverted-v profiles, where there will be a gradual increase in midlevel southwesterly flow from NV into ID/UT/western WY. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in this regime across the northern Great Basin, where occasional 50-65 mph outflow gusts can be expected this afternoon/evening. ...East central FL this afternoon... Strong surface heating is underway across east central FL, along the Atlantic coast sea breeze and a weak/remnant outflow boundary farther inland across central FL. Moderate-large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and slightly enhanced midlevel westerly flow will favor semi-organized multicell clusters, and perhaps some transient supercell structures, with storms forming along the boundaries this afternoon. However, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly favorable for strong downdrafts (DCAPE close to 500 J/kg based on observed and forecast soundings). Also, rather modest lapse rates aloft and effective bulk shear near 25 kt are not particularly favorable for large hail production. Thus, while a couple of strong storms are possible this afternoon, the damaging wind and hail threats appear to be too marginal to warrant adding an outlook area. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 09/10/2021 Read more LIVE:
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