SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains on Thursday. ...Central Plains... Prominent upper ridging extending from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest should advance slowly eastward on Thursday as an upper trough/low moves across central Canada. A shortwave trough embedded between these two features is forecast to develop east-northeastward across the northern/central Plains through the day. At the surface, a low should develop along/near the NE/SD border area through Thursday evening in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough. A cold front attendant to the surface low is expected to move southeastward across the central Plains through the period. A moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front across the central Plains. However, there will likely be a rather widespread area of showers and storms ongoing Thursday morning across parts of SD, NE, and western KS associated with low-level warm advection. This morning precipitation may limit diurnal heating to some extent ahead of the front. Still, additional convective development should occur by Thursday afternoon along/ahead of the front. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized updrafts, including a mix of multicells and supercells. Storms that form in the afternoon/evening may pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging wind gusts. A cluster or two may ultimately evolve by Thursday evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across the central Plains, with the strong/gusty wind threat potentially continuing across central and eastern NE/KS. Primary uncertainty remains how much recovery will occur behind the morning convection, which will impact the degree of instability that can develop. A more concentrated area of severe potential across NE/KS may eventually become more evident, but at this point there is too much uncertainty regarding instability Thursday afternoon to include higher severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 09/01/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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