SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds are possible Tuesday from parts of Missouri and Iowa northeastward across the Great Lakes. Areas of significant wind gusts may develop. ...Midwest and Great Lakes Regions... Confidence is not high regarding the greatest threat corridors on Tuesday, but potential will exist for areas of damaging winds during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. A cold front will move across MN and northern WI during the day as height falls overspread the region. Cooling midlevel temperatures will result in steep lapse rates, while ahead of the cold front, low-level theta-e increases across WI and MI. A few severe storms are expected along the front after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI. Here, shear will be strongest, and may favor a supercell or two. Hail and damaging gusts will be possible. Farther south, and including the area from IA and MO eastward to MI and OH, very strong instability will be in place, with extreme values over 4000 J/kg centered over IL. Models depict various solutions in terms of initiation points but one potential threat zone appears to be near a stalling front over IA, and perhaps with convective remnants/possible MCV moving out of KS into MO. Initiation may occur during the peak heating hours, or wait until after 00Z. Shear will not be strong but westerly 850 mb winds around 30 kt and robust instability will strongly favor forward-propagating convection, perhaps several MCSs, producing damaging winds into IL, IN, and eventually Lower MI. A few significant gusts will be possible, but predictability is too low to depict a corridor at this time. Other storms are possible across the remainder of the area in the uncapped air mass, anywhere from KY and TN to OH. Models again vary regarding where storms will develop, but strong/severe outflow is conditionally possible wherever storms form. Later outlooks will likely have a better handle on predictability. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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