SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe severe storms are expected over parts of the northern and central Plains on Monday. Other strong storms may occur across the mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. ..Northern Plains... A potent shortwave trough will move across MT and WY during the day, and into the western Dakotas by late afternoon. Preceding the stronger flow aloft will be a cold front that is expected to shift into the central/eastern Dakotas by 00Z. A surface trough will extend from the eastern Dakotas into central NE and western KS at this time. Strong heating will remove capping during the late afternoon ahead of the cold front, with sporadic thunderstorms expected after 21Z from the Dakotas into NE. Storms may be high-based initially due to a well-mixed boundary layer, and damaging outflow will be possible. Hail is also likely with the stronger storms. Capping will become a concern overnight as the front progresses east into MN, and will likely limit storm coverage. Farther south, a secondary low may form over western KS near a dryline, with strong instability along and south of I-70. Warm advection with a 30+ kt low level jet may support isolated cells or a cluster of storms through evening, progressing across northern KS and into southeast NE with hail and wind potential. ...IA...IL...IN... Rain and storms are forecast to be ongoing Monday morning, supported by a weak wave aloft and good theta-e advection at 850 mb out of the west. Destabilization south of the early activity may support rejuvenation of a cluster or two, with wind threat. Additional development is likely late in the day in response to heating, and into the evening. Overall, predictability is low for this area, but sporadic severe appears likely given strong instability and outflow boundaries. Low-level shear may support small regions of tornado threat, but in general the primary threat should be wind. ..Jewell.. 08/08/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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