SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WY AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Occasional severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of central/eastern Wyoming and vicinity. ...WY area this afternoon/evening... A well-defined, midlevel shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward from southern ID this morning to WY this afternoon/evening. Forcing for ascent in advance of the midlevel trough will support multiple clusters/bands of convection today across WY, and storms will spread eastward into the western Dakotas/NE later this afternoon/evening. Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg), deep inverted-v profiles with pockets of daytime heating and midlevel flow/effective bulk shear increasing to 40+ kt suggest the possibility of occasional severe outflow gusts with high-based, organized storm clusters. ...Midwest area this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough over the MS Valley, with embedded perturbations/MCVs over southeast IA, southern Lake MI, and southeast MO into eastern AR, will move slowly eastward through tonight. Sufficient buoyancy for strong updrafts is expected this afternoon from southern WI/northern IL and vicinity, though areas farther west into IA and southeastern SD/eastern NE (where deep-layer shear will be more favorable for supercells) are expected to remain capped with negligible forcing for ascent. Pockets of surface heating and ascent with the embedded midlevel perturbations may support a couple of loosely organized storm clusters this afternoon, with the potential to produce isolated damaging outflow gusts and large hail from southern WI/northern IL into southwest Lower MI. Overnight, a warm advection regime will strengthen toward southern MN, on the nose of a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Lift should be sufficient for elevated thunderstorms late tonight, with some potential for isolated large hail given MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear close to 40 kt. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 08/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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