SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are expected Saturday from the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central/Northern Plains into the upper MS Valley... A shortwave trough will move east across SD, NE, and KS during the day, with gradually cooling midlevel temperatures and lift. Midlevel westerlies will increase to near 40 kt across NE and KS through 00Z, spreading east across IA overnight. At the surface, low pressure will develop over central SD, NE and KS during the day, with a warm front across southern MN and WI. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be common across the warm sector, with heating resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg over a large area. Early day storms are expected along the warm front, from southern MN into southern WI. While this activity may initially be elevated, lack of any appreciable cap may allow a transition to surface based by midday, with damaging winds possible. Depending on storm mode, a tornado may be possible with 200-300 m2/s2 SRH near the warm advection zone. To the west, additional storms will form near the surface low over SD and NE after 21Z where lapse rates will be quite steep. While 850 mb winds will likely exceed 40 kt across the Plains late in the day and overnight, winds aloft will not be particularly strong. This may favor propagating clusters of storms, with an MCS or two producing damaging winds. Hail will be likely with the early/cellular activity due to strong instability and steep lapse rates. ...Central KS into the TX Panhandle... A stalling front will provide a focus for isolated to scattered afternoon storms near peak heating in a narrow zone from central KS into the TX Panhandle. The air mass farther east is likely to remain capped, limiting storm coverage after 03Z. MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg along with modest westerlies aloft may support a few severe storms capable of marginal hail or strong wind gusts. A small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision increases. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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