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Thursday, August 5, 2021

SPC Aug 5, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly in the form of wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northwest this afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are also possible across parts of the Upper Midwest from late afternoon through about sunset. ...Northwest... A pronounced shortwave trough along the northern CA coast should reach the northern Intermountain West tonight. Two lobes of ascent are anticipated ahead of this trough. The leading wave has aided in ongoing elevated convection across northeast OR. This should eventually spread atop a deepening boundary layer across the northern Rockies area this afternoon. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as this convection spreads into southwest MT, while additional very high-based storms develop south across eastern ID into northeast NV/northwest UT. Secondary convective development is anticipated towards late afternoon closer to the cold core of the trough from south-central to northeast OR, maintaining a threat for isolated severe winds in the wake of ongoing convection. In addition, a threat for isolated severe hail is apparent from northeast OR into central ID where the relatively largest combination of buoyancy and shear is expected later today. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a minor shortwave impulse moving east in IA, a plume of moderate destabilization is anticipated from the Mid-MO Valley north-northeast into a portion of northeast MN. A weak cold front should bisect northeast to southwest MN by late afternoon. Convergence along this boundary should be aided by a minor shortwave impulse moving east along the MN international border. With minimal MLCIN, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. Modest tropospheric flow along with veer-back-veer signatures in forecast soundings suggest that effective shear will likely only reach 15-25 kt. This along with modest mid-level lapse rates will probably curtail hail magnitudes and limit marginally severe hail to the corridor of initial storm development. The primary relative threat should be sporadic damaging winds from strong gusts amid outflow-dominated multicells that gradually spread east-southeast, before waning towards sunset. ..Grams/Dial.. 08/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov