DarkSky Temps | Gusts | WU KORD Data

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...

RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN

NEXRAD

STORMTRACK

Cardinal SAT

CHGOWX.COM


Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data updated 24-48 hours after end of each day. MOBILE CHGOWX.COM ...
Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Weather conditions with Moon are O'Hare (official).

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

SPC Aug 31, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH GA/FAR EAST-CENTRAL AL AND NORTHERN VA TO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes remain possible, mainly across far east-central Alabama into north Georgia this afternoon, with the remnants of tropical cyclone Ida. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds may also occur tonight over a portion of the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Southeast States... The remnants of Ida will move northeast from northwest AL across the southern to central Appalachians through early Wednesday. A narrow overlap of 150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH coincident with meager MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg should gradually shift east across far east-central AL and north GA through this afternoon. Some cloud breaks between areas of low-level confluence suggest potential still exists for a couple low-topped supercells evolving from showers that can be sustained near the AL/GA border. Farther east, a north-south band of showers and thunderstorms has also developed along the differential heating corridor from central GA into the eastern FL Panhandle. Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado will be the hazards as activity spreads northeast along the leading edge of low-level flow enhancement. Over the central the FL Panhandle, larger buoyancy owing to greater low-level moisture will continue to support a threat for locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado into this afternoon. Further overturning and the belt of stronger flow/shear shifting away from this region should yield a diminishing threat later today. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Minimal convergence and forcing for ascent along a weak surface front across northern VA to the Delmarva area suggest that convective development this afternoon should be subdued. A greater chance for isolated thunderstorms will occur this evening into the overnight as low-level warm theta-e advection increases ahead of the remnants of Ida. Most CAMs do suggest a couple supercells should develop along the baroclinic zone coincident with enlargement to hodographs as low to mid-level flow and effective shear strengthens. Residual steepness in low-level lapse rates from the warm boundary layer this afternoon in conjunction with seasonally rich low-level moisture might support a threat for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes into the overnight. ...Eastern KS to Mid-MS Valley... The remnants of early-day convection are moving southeast across the Lower MO Valley with the composite outflow arcing from north-central MO into east-central KS as of 16Z. Strong gusts should become increasingly localized along the KS/MO border in the near-term as convection is anticipated to further decay. Consensus of CAM guidance suggests convective redevelopment is most likely tied to an MCV near the IA/MO border later this afternoon. Potential exists for loosely organized multicell clustering in the eastern MO and Mid-MS Valley areas amid a modest combination of buoyancy and shear. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat. Development farther west along the trailing outflow boundary appears much more nebulous. ...Far northeast MT/northwest ND... As minor mid-level height falls overspread the northern High Plains region tonight, convergence along a surface cold front will strengthen near the MT/ND/SK border area. Intensifying low-level warm theta-e advection near this boundary may be sufficient to overcome pronounced inhibition overnight and yield an elevated supercell with a threat for severe hail. ..Grams/Lyons.. 08/31/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/S6hLPs