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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, August 30, 2021

SPC Aug 30, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL AND WEST-CENTRAL GA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible from the Florida Panhandle northward into the southern Appalachians as the remnants of Hurricane Ida move through the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build across the Plains ahead of an upper trough moving across southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. The remnants of Hurricane Ida will likely be centered near the TN/MS/AL border intersection early Tuesday morning. This system will likely be a tropical depression by this time, with further weakening anticipated as it continues quickly northeastward across the TN Valley throughout the day. ...Portions of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians... Strong low to mid-level flow is expected to continue throughout the eastern periphery of Ida as it moves northeastward across the TN Valley. These strong wind fields will support rotation with any updrafts that can maintain strength and depth for a sufficient period of time. Whether or not the buoyancy needed for these conditions will develop is the primary uncertainty. It does seem probable that at least a few tornadic storms will develop with the rain bands moving around the eastern part of the system, with the highest potential from the western/central FL Panhandle into east-central AL and west-central GA. In this area mid 70s dewpoints should help increase buoyancy, resulting in a greater probability for a few tornadoes. ...Mid MO River Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Mid MO River Valley early Tuesday morning. Guidance varies on the strength and coverage of these storms, but, given the vertical shear and buoyancy expected to be in place, the potential exists for a few strong to severe storms. These storms will likely be elevated, which suggests the primary severe threat is hail. However, if robust linear organization occurs Monday night (late Day 1), the resulting outflow could be pushing southeastward through the region, increasing the potential for damaging wind gusts. In either scenario, overall severe coverage appears it will be limited/isolated, meriting keeping probabilities to 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 08/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov