SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from mid-afternoon into tonight, over parts of central/eastern Oregon and Washington into far western Idaho. A low-probability risk for a brief tornado is forecast across far eastern North Carolina overnight. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... A shortwave impulse just off the WA coast will drift inland near the WA/BC border area through tomorrow morning. A couple rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this impulse during the afternoon through tonight in WA. An initial round may initiate across the Cascades in central WA this afternoon and spread gradually towards the BC border this evening. A second round may develop its in wake from north-central to southeast WA tonight. A separate area of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should occur across eastern OR late afternoon and linger this evening. A belt of confluent mid-level flow will become centered on the southeast WA/northeast OR region. The relatively greater effective shear should overlie convection in this area, supporting potential for a couple high-based supercells with a threat of marginally severe hail in addition to localized severe gusts. Severe wind gust potential from dry microbursts should be comparatively greater in the southeast OR vicinity owing to an even deeper mixed boundary-layer and weaker shear. ...Far eastern NC... While the 12Z NAM is most aggressive, bulk of latest guidance suggests low-level flow will strengthen as a minor surface wave develops near the coastal border of SC/NC along a weak baroclinic zone. Multiple rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms today through tonight will limit the degree of instability inland and the surface boundary should remain quasi-stationary across far eastern NC and the Outer Banks. But an enlarging low-level hodograph will foster conditional potential for a brief tornado overnight. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 08/03/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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