SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA...SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible tonight in a broad area from central Montana into South Dakota and Nebraska, eastward through Iowa and into southwest Wisconsin. ...SD/NE east to IA and southwest Great Lakes... Considerable convective activity during the day has led to the placement of several boundaries draped across the NE/IA vicinity this evening. The airmass south of the boundaries is extremely unstable across eastern NE (5600 J/kg MLCAPE on the Omaha raob) where a reservoir of rich low-level moisture resides beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. The primary uncertainty this forecast pertains to the evolution of storms during the evening and into the overnight as a LLJ strengthens across the central Great Plains. Mid-level heights are expected to gradually fall across this region overnight but the primary mid-level disturbance will remain mostly displaced to the northwest of the region. Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop during the evening and become more widespread through the late evening and into the overnight. Widely scattered severe gusts are possible and a risk for large hail will potentially accompany the more intense updrafts. Please reference MCD #1614 for the latest short-term details across SD and NE. ...MT... A potent mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water-vapor imagery this evening, will move east tonight reaching the western Dakotas by daybreak. An cluster of storms over central MT this evening will continue through the evening as this activity spreads east. The 00z Glasgow raob showed a modestly moist and weakly unstable airmass across eastern MT with 600 J/kg MLCAPE. A wind profile supporting organized storms will aid in some of the stronger storms to be capable of a wind/hail risk through the late evening hours before this activity weakens late. ..Smith.. 08/27/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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