SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the north-central U.S. Friday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to prevail across much of the southern half to two-thirds of the country Friday, while low-amplitude troughing persists from the northwestern to the north-central portions of the country. One weakening short-wave trough initially crossing the Dakotas/Upper Mississippi Valley area will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and then into Ontario, while the next in a series of short-wave disturbances moves eastward across the northern Intermountain region toward the Dakotas. At the surface, low pressure along the persistent surface baroclinic zone is forecast to evolve over the western South Dakota vicinity, with the front lifting very slowly northward across the Mid Missouri/Upper Mississippi Valley area through the period. ...Eastern Montana to the upper Mississippi Valley... Widespread/ongoing convection is expected from the northern High Plains into the Midwest early Friday, along and north of the surface baroclinic zone. Storms over the north-central states should diminish somewhat through the day, but will likely redevelop through late afternoon and into the evening, near and north of the front as the next upper short-wave trough advances toward the area, and reintensification of a southerly low-level jet occurs across the Plains. While much of the convection will likely occur to the cool side of the front in the warm advection zone -- where marginal hail risk may evolve, a few stronger storms nearer the front/warm sector may also be capable of locally gusty/damaging winds through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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