SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage will continue from parts of the mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... The latest water vapor imagery shows west to southwest mid-level flow from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, with a subtle shortwave trough moving eastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from the mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes where surface dewpoints are generally in the 70s F. Moderate to strong instability is located along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Illinois into southern Lower Michigan. An MCS is ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger instability. The MCS should remain intact this evening and move eastward across the southern Great Lakes region. The most favorable environment for severe storms is currently from northeast Illinois into southern Lower Michigan where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP at Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 35 kt with unidirectional west-southwest flow from just above the surface to mid-levels. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the stronger multicell line segments. Further to the west from central Nebraska into western Iowa, the RAP is also showing a pocket of strong instability. MLCAPE within this corridor is estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. The 00Z sounding at Omaha confirms the RAP analysis with MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg. This sounding also shows 0-6 km shear near 20 kt with a steep low to mid-level lapse rate. This should be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts. However, storm coverage is expected to remain sparse which should minimize any wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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