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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Weather conditions with Moon are O'Hare (official).

Thursday, August 19, 2021

SPC Aug 19, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are forecast to spread from eastern portions of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region Friday, accompanied by risk for large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. ...Synopsis... While weak upper troughing lingers over the Northeast, a short-wave trough digging southward out of coastal western Canada into the Pacific Northwest will help a third short-wave trough eject northeastward out of the Rockies and across the northern Plains. At the surface, the main feature will be a cold front moving across the Plains states, in tandem with the aforementioned trough. This storm system will be associated with the primary area of severe risk -- over the north-central states -- through the period. ...Eastern portions of the Plains, into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains area Friday morning, ahead of the advancing upper trough. While the convection is forecast to diminish somewhat in coverage/intensity through the morning, there will likely be some influence -- with respect to afternoon destabilization -- as a result of this convection. Still, moderate destabilization is forecast across most of the warm sector by mid to late afternoon, as the cold front advances across the Plains. Increasing ascent ahead of the upper system -- focused along the surface front -- will result in redevelopment of storms. Convection should initially develop from southeastern North Dakota southward to eastern Nebraska, and then will spread into western portions of Minnesota/Iowa with time. With enhanced low-level southerlies across this region veering/increase with height through mid levels, initial storms will likely acquire rotation, accompanied by hail and locally damaging winds, along with potential for a tornado or two. As storms increase in coverage, upscale growth into organized bands/lines is anticipated into the evening, which may increase potential for damaging winds. Still, will maintain only SLGT risk forecast at this time, though an upgrade may be required in later outlooks. Storms should continue into the overnight hours, along with at least some ongoing severe potential. ..Goss.. 08/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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