SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Tornado potential will continue tonight across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region in association with post-Tropical Cyclone Fred. ...Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred... Remnants of Fred are ejecting northeast across eastern PA and the center of this old circulation appears to be near Northumberland County. An arcing band of strong convection extends across Schuylkill-Berks-York County, moving east around 20-25kt. Vertical shear remains sufficiently strong for weak supercells, but the primary storm mode is more linear in nature with few discrete structures. 00z sounding from IAD, along the southwestern flank of this system, exhibits substantial veering, though adequately sheared for organized line segments and possible bowing structures. Greatest risk with this advancing line of storms is isolated damaging winds, but a tornado or two can not be ruled out. ...Elsewhere... Weak short-wave trough is lifting northeast across the Bootheel of MO with increased mid-level flow observed along a corridor from northern MS into middle TN. This appears to be influencing a cluster of convection across the TN Valley region. A few strong wind gusts appear possible with this convection for the next few hours. Farther west across the UT region, mid-level heights are falling across the Great Basin as upper troughing settles south across ID into NV/UT. Convection has gradually weakened over the last few hours as the primary corridor of storms shifts south. Boundary-layer cooling will also prove detrimental for organized severe across this region. ..Darrow.. 08/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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