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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 17, 2021

SPC Aug 17, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF UTAH... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes may occur today from parts of the western Carolinas and southwestern Virginia. Locally severe gusts may affect parts of the Great Basin. ...GA/Carolinas/VA... The remnants of Fred are continuing to move slowly northward across GA. One primary band of stronger convection to the northeast of the circulation center is likely to maintain organization much of the day, affecting parts of western SC/NC. Vertical shear profiles are quite strong in this region, with visible/IR satellite imagery suggesting a clear slot impinging on the line. This may aid in the development of supercells and occasional tornadoes through the afternoon. Other more isolated cells may occur farther north over western NC and southern VA, with a risk of a tornado or two as well. ...Great Basin... Latest water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across NV. Strong heating ahead of this feature will help temperatures to climb well into the 90s across eastern NV and much of UT, where dewpoints in are in the 40s to lower 50s. This will yield sufficient CAPE for rather widespread thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles coupled with sufficient westerly flow aloft will likely result in strong outflow winds near the more organized storm clusters. ...MT... Similar to yesterday, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT and spread rapidly eastward. A few of the storms will likely produce locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Moore.. 08/17/2021 Read more LIVE:
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