SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE OHIO...TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible from a portion of the Northeast States into the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys Friday. ...Northeast States through the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys... A broad upper trough will persist over the Great Lakes region. By 12Z Friday a cold front should extend from the lower Great Lakes through northern or central IL then westward into KS. A moist boundary layer will reside in the pre-frontal warm sector. However, there will likely be areas of ongoing thunderstorms and widespread convective debris over portions of this region. There also remains uncertainty where the convective boundaries and MCVs associated any ongoing activity will situated, but current indications are that the outflow boundaries will likely result in the more unstable portion of the warm sector evolving well south of the synoptic front. The atmosphere should become moderately unstable during the afternoon, and additional thunderstorms will redevelop primarily along residual outflow boundaries. Vertical shear in the warm sector will remain weak and supportive of multicells, but storms may evolve into lines and clusters and become capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts through early evening. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal upslope flow regime will evolve Friday, resulting in a corridor of upper 50s to 60F dewpoints advecting northwestward into northeast CO and southeast WY beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates. The atmosphere may become at least marginally unstable in this region with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Isolated storms may develop over the higher terrain and spread southeast. Weak to modest 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kt will support multicell storms. The stronger updrafts could produce a few instances of marginally severe hail. ..Dial.. 08/12/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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