SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with isolated damaging wind the main threat will be possible from a portion of the Northeast States into the Ohio Valley and Midwest regions on Thursday. ...Northeast States through Ohio Valley and Midwest... Upper trough will remain situated from the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday. By the start of the period a cold front will extend from western WI southwestward into NE, and by late afternoon the front should stretch from southeast WI through IA to along the KS/NE border where it will likely stall. Areas of thunderstorms may be in progress over a part of the Great Lakes and OH Valley, but should gradually diminish through the morning. The pre-frontal warm sector will likely once again become moderately to strongly unstable during the afternoon with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE likely as the surface layer warms. It still appears likely that widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will redevelop along and south of the front during the afternoon, including along remnant outflow boundaries and lake breezes. Stronger winds aloft will remain north of warm sector which will generally be characterized by weak to modest (25-35 kt) vertical shear. Nevertheless, storms may evolve into clusters and line segments and become capable of producing isolated strong to damaging gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon into the early evening. The impact of areas of morning storms along with other mesoscale uncertainties such as location/strength of any remnant MCVs and outflow boundaries lower confidence in higher probabilities at this time. However, a categorical risk upgrade may be warranted for portions of this region in future updates. ..Dial.. 08/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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