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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

SPC Aug 10, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. ...Midwest through the upper Great Lakes regions... A synoptic upper trough will extend from the northern Plains into the Great lakes Wednesday. A shortwave trough embedded within this feature will move through WI and MI during the day accompanied by a cold front. By early Wednesday the front should extend from western WI into southeast MN and central IA. By early evening this boundary should extend from Lake MI southwest into southern IA and northern KS. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing from a part of the Midwest into the Great Lakes. Some of this activity might pose a risk for hail, but a gradual diminishing trend is expected. Widespread convective debris might persist in wake of the morning storms, but some diabatic heating of the moist boundary layer will occur with MLCAPE from 2500-3500 J/kg likely. Storms are expected to redevelop along the southeast-advancing cold front from WI into IA as the atmosphere destabilizes during the afternoon. These storms will be embedded within a belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds promoting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Organized storms including a few supercells and bowing segments will be possible as activity spreads east during the afternoon and evening. The parameter space appears conditionally supportive of higher probabilities. However, mesoscale uncertainty introduced by potential for areas of widespread morning storms precludes introduction of more than a SLGT risk at this time. ...Lower Great Lakes into a portion of the Northeast... A lead impulse accompanied by a weakening cold front is forecast to move through the lower Great lakes into a portion of the Northeast States during the day. A moderately unstable pre-frontal warm sector with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg appears likely, and storms are expected to develop along this boundary and spread east during the afternoon. Weak vertical shear will support multicells, but storms may evolve into line segments with a few strong to damaging gusts the main threat. ..Dial.. 08/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov