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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, July 9, 2021

SPC Jul 9, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK...SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO...NORTHERN AR...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IN...WESTERN KY...WESTERN TN... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging wind, large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible. ...Central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley... A seasonably strong mid/upper trough will move southeastward across portions of the Plains and Midwest/Mid MS Valley on Saturday. A surface low is forecast to track across portions of MO/IL, as an attendant cold front moves through portions of the central/southern Plains. Moderate to locally strong MLCAPE will likely develop by afternoon near and south/east of the cold front across the Plains, and also along/south of an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone that will likely extend across some portion of central/eastern MO eastward into the OH Valley. Vigorous thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon along the cold front across the Plains, with additional development and/or intensification of ongoing convection possible further east into the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt near the frontal zone, resulting in the potential for organized cells and/or clusters. Hail and locally damaging wind will be the primary threat with initially more discrete development, with a transition to mostly a damaging wind threat by evening as upscale growth occurs along the front. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed to address the potential for somewhat more widespread wind damage with the frontal convection. A tornado or two will also be possible, primarily with initial discrete development along the front across the Plains or any sustained supercell that interacts with the effective warm front across portions of MO/IL. A few stronger post-frontal storms will also be possible across the central Plains, particularly across portions of central/northern KS, where midlevel flow/effective shear will remain sufficiently strong to support organized clusters and/or a couple of supercells, capable of producing isolated hail and wind damage. ...NM/AZ... Models continue to suggest that there will be sufficient moisture for the development of modest CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) across parts of NM into southern AZ, in the presence of strong heating and steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates. Initial widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the higher terrain, with a corresponding threat of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Modest (20-30 kt) northeasterly midlevel flow will support the potential for a thunderstorm cluster to move into the lower terrain of southeast AZ, with a corresponding risk of damaging wind gusts. ..Dean.. 07/09/2021 Read more LIVE:
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