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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 7, 2021

SPC Jul 7, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of producing locally damaging gusts and hail are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas. A couple of tornadoes associated with the remnants of Hurricane Elsa also are possible across parts of the eastern Carolinas toward the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Locally damaging wind will also be possible from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Eastern MT into the Dakotas... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of eastern MT and the western Dakotas by late Thursday afternoon, as a seasonably strong midlevel shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. Modest low-level moisture and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate buoyancy, while low-level easterly flow veering to moderate west-northwesterlies aloft will result in effective shear in excess of 40 kt. Long, straight hodographs will support the potential for supercells, with at least a couple of rather long-lived supercells possible into the evening hours from eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Large hail and locally damaging wind will be the primary threats. There will be some potential for significant hail, depending on how much destabilization can occur in advance of the developing convection. The potential for upscale growth remains somewhat uncertain, but any cluster or small MCS that forms may also pose a threat of significant wind gusts. Probabilities for significant hail/wind may eventually be needed for portions of this area. ...Coastal Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic... Some tornado threat will likely persist east of the track T.C. Elsa as it moves northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Uncertainty regarding the potential for the overlap of sufficient instability with the most favorable wind profiles precludes higher probabilities at this time, but a corridor of 5% tornado probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Portions of the Northeast/southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by Thursday afternoon in a weakly capped environment across eastern PA and NJ, and also potentially along a warm front into portions of southern New England. Modestly enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow may support some organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind. A supercell or two cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the warm front, which would pose a threat of a tornado or two in addition the damaging wind potential. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are expected by late morning/early afternoon along a cold front across portions of the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit updraft intensity somewhat despite moderate buoyancy, but effective shear of 25-35 kt will support a few organized storms. Locally damaging wind is the most likely hazard with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 07/07/2021 Read more LIVE:
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