SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...EASTERN NE...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHWEST MO AND NORTHEAST KS... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of the central Plains and Middle Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough is forecast to spread east/southeast across the northern/central Plains on Friday. This will result in increasing west/northwesterly mid/upper level flow across the region on the easterly periphery of a strong EML. At the surface, a low will deepen and spread south/southeast across the central Plains. Ahead of the low and a southeastward-advancing cold front, dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F are forecast and will aid in strong destabilization by afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt will result in organized convection by late afternoon across northwest NE. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough and an increasing southerly low level jet during the evening hours will support upward development into an east/southeastward advancing bow/MCS capable of damaging wind gusts. There is some uncertainty in the south/east extent of severe potential as ongoing convection is possible Friday morning across parts of IA in a strong warm advection regime, and capping will increase further south into parts of KS/MO. Nevertheless, increasing potential exists for damaging winds across parts of NE into the mid-MO Valley vicinity late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Furthermore, if any cells can remain semi-discrete, large hail and a tornado will be possible given favorable lapse rates and supercell wind profiles. ..Leitman.. 07/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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