SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA/EASTERN SC...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible on Wednesday from portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and also across parts of Montana. A couple of tornadoes associated with Tropical Storm Elsa also are possible across parts of northern Florida into southeast Georgia and parts of South Carolina. ...North FL into southeast GA/SC... Tropical Storm Elsa is currently forecast to make landfall on the FL Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and then gradually weaken through the period as it moves northeastward into southern GA/SC. Enhanced low-level shear and SRH in the northeast quadrant of the storm may favor a threat of a couple tornadoes from north FL into southeast GA and southern SC. Higher tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the potential for somewhat more robust destabilization east of the expected track of Elsa. ...Portions of the OH Valley into the Northeast... Despite generally weak midlevel lapse rates, strong heating and rich low-level moisture will support the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy Wednesday afternoon across portions of the OH Valley into the Northeast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected by early afternoon from IN and southern lower MI eastward into OH/PA and portions of southern New England, along and south of a slow-moving cold front. While stronger midlevel flow will remain displaced to the north of the front, effective shear of 20-30 kt will support multicell clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts. ...Montana and vicinity... A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest into southern portions of BC/AB on Wednesday. While low-level moisture is expected to be relatively limited, it will likely be sufficient to support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon across the higher terrain of ID/western MT, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Localized dry microbursts will be possible with initial development across the higher terrain, while one or more fast-moving clusters may move into lower elevations of central/southern MT during the evening with a threat of outflow-generated severe wind gusts. ..Dean.. 07/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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