SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind are possible over a portion of the Northeast States Tuesday. Isolated tornadoes are possible over a portion of the Florida Penisula Tuesday into Tuesday night in association with Tropical Storm Elsa. ...Northeast States and southern New England... A zonal upper pattern will remain in place across the Northeast States Tuesday with a series of embedded low-amplitude impulses. The most prominent of these features is expected to move through this region during the morning into the early afternoon. At the surface a cold front will approach the region from the northwest with most of this area remaining within the pre-frontal warm sector during the day. West southwesterly low-level winds will maintain an influx of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints, and diabatic heating should boost MLCAPE to between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to initiate within the pre-frontal warm sector, possibly along lake breezes as well as the higher terrain as the boundary layer destabilizes by late morning. Activity will spread east through the afternoon. While effective bulk shear will remain weak across the region, a belt of 30-35 kt flow will reside in the 850-700 mb layer. Multicell storms may congeal into lines and clusters, becoming capable of producing damaging wind before weakening by early evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move northward just off western Florida coast Tuesday and Tuesday night, before finally moving inland along the west coast of the northern FL Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Based on this motion, the corridor of strongest low-level shear accompanying Elsa should spread northward through the FL Peninsula during the day and into the overnight. The stronger convection developing in the outer bands east of the center may become capable of producing a few tornadoes during the period. ...Central Plains through Upper Midwest and Great Lakes... Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the moderately unstable environment along a cold front from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Other storms will develop along a lee trough and higher terrain and spread east into the southern High Plains. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, but the thermodynamic environment may support a few instances of locally strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. ..Dial.. 07/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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