SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with damaging wind remain possible mainly from the Ohio Valley westward into the middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains this evening. Other strong to severe storms including potential for a tornado remain possible through 02Z from southern New England southward to along a portion of the Middle Atlantic coast. ...Ohio Valley through Middle Mississippi Valley and central Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms continue developing along and south of a cold front from the OH Valley westward through southern NE. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft with up to 40 kt effective bulk shear exists from WV through southern OH and IN where the atmosphere remains moderately unstable, suggesting some storms in this region will take on occasional organized structures. Farther west, wind profiles become progressively weaker from the northern MO into NE due to proximity of upper ridge. While thermodynamic profiles exhibit large instability with up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, mid-level temperatures are warm resulting in weak to modest lapse rates. Storms developing in this region this evening will pose a risk for mainly isolated downburst winds. While some severe threat may exist into the late evening, general tendency should be for storms to undergo a gradual weakening trend after 03Z as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. ...Southern New England through the Middle Atlantic Coast... A few strong to severe storms persist across coastal NJ as well as farther north along a cold front across eastern NY into southern New England. The storms across coastal NJ remain in a favorable shear environment for low-level updraft rotation and possibly a brief tornado or two. However this activity is in the process of moving offshore. Storms developing farther north along the cold front will continue into southern New England where the atmosphere is only marginally unstable. This activity may pose some risk for a few strong to damaging gusts until about 03Z, but overall threat is expected to remain limited due to the marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Dial.. 07/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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