SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms with occasional significant severe wind damage are expected this evening into tonight along a corridor from northeastern Minnesota across Wisconsin to southwest Lower Michigan. ...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region... As of early evening, robust surface-based thunderstorm initiation is underway in several areas across the Upper Midwest including along a cold front over northeast MN as well as along a pre-frontal boundary across northwest WI. Storms are expected to increase in coverage this evening over northern WI in response to an strengthening southwesterly low-level jet coupled with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving southeast along the northern periphery of an upper ridge. Some of the initial storms may exhibit supercell characteristics given 45+ kt effective bulk shear and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Very large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly through mid-evening. However, storms should eventually congeal into a forward-propagating MCS with line/bowing segments and spread southeast along the instability gradient. Widespread damaging wind (some significant) and possibly a few QLCS tornadoes should become the main threats later this evening into the overnight. ..Dial.. 07/29/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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