Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... A large area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place from the Rockies into the Southeast late in the week as an upper-level trough moves across the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Moderate instability should develop along and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon with isolated severe thunderstorm development possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. On Friday and Saturday, an isolated severe threat could also develop along and ahead of the front as the boundary moves southeastward into the southeastern states. Further west, an isolated severe threat will also be possible on Saturday across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as low-level moisture advection occurs. A threat area will not be introduced across the continental United States at this time due to uncertainties concerning mesoscale features and instability distribution. ...Sunday/Day 7 to Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, a cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to setup across the eastern half of the nation as an upper-level trough moves southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Appalachians. In response to the synoptic-scale upper-level trough, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Carolinas. The front will likely be a focus for convective development but any threat will depend upon instability and other mesoscale factors. Marginally severe wind gusts will be possible each afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. Uncertainty remains high at this range in the forecast period. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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