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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, July 25, 2021

SPC Jul 25, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN...NORTHERN WI...EXTREME WESTERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes... While some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the surface pattern and impact of morning convection, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to increase across portions of northern/central MN into northern WI and western portions of the Michigan U.P. Monday afternoon and evening. Steepening midlevel lapse rates, moderate to locally strong buoyancy, and sustained low-level warm advection should result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening near and north of a warm front across portions of northern MN/WI, and perhaps as far west as southwest ND. Veering wind profiles with rather strong northwesterly flow aloft will result in long hodographs, and a few supercells are possible initially posing a threat of large hail. Storms may consolidate into one or more clusters with time during the evening, posing an increasing threat of damaging wind. The western extent of the severe threat remains uncertain, and will likely depend in part on the coverage and intensity of morning convection and location of any leftover boundaries. The highest confidence in severe storm coverage currently resides across central/northern MN into northern WI, where a Slight Risk has been included. ...VA/NC... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across portions of VA/NC Monday afternoon and evening, as moderate to locally strong buoyancy develops during peak heating and a weak surface boundary moves into the region. This region will be on the southern fringe of modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow, with effective shear expected to be in the 20-30 kt range, so at least briefly organized storm structures will be possible. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat within the high PW environment. ...Portions of New England... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop across portions of New England by afternoon, while midlevel flow of 30-40 kt will support a conditionally favorable shear environment for a few organized storms. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of deep convection across this region, with rather dry air expected to persist in the midlevels, and little large-scale ascent noted in guidance during the afternoon or evening. If deep convection can be sustained in this region, then isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 07/25/2021 Read more LIVE:
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