SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two are expected from northern Illinois into Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MI... A well-defined shortwave trough over WI/Upper Mi will track rapidly eastward today across Lower MI. A moist and unstable air mass is in place over this region, along with relatively strong vertical shear. Thunderstorms (including a supercell or two) are expected to develop by mid-afternoon and track across the region, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Please refer to MCD #1339 for further details. ...IL/IN... By mid-late afternoon, strong instability is expected to develop along the trailing cold front from southwest Lower MI into northern IL/IN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along this axis, although models vary significantly regarding coverage and intensity. Those storms that do form will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts through the early evening. ...AZ/NV... Similar to yesterday, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of northern AZ and southern NV. A moist boundary layer coupled with strong heating through early afternoon will help to yield MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Low-level shear is weak, but 25 knot mid-level winds will help organize westward-moving cold pools and result in the potential for gusty winds in some areas, along with hail in the higher elevations. ..Hart/Lyons.. 07/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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