SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PARTS OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible over parts of New York and Vermont this afternoon into early tonight. ...NY/VT... A large upper ridge remains centered over the western states today, with northwest flow aloft across New England and the lower Great Lakes region. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into southeast Ontario. A cluster of thunderstorms associated with this feature will approach northern NY after 19z, and eventually track into VT. Given the relatively fast motion and bowing structures evident with these storms, damaging winds will be possible. There is uncertainty how far east the activity can maintain severe intensity, due to persistent clouds and weaker instability over parts of northeast VT and NH. However, given recent CAM solutions will extend the SLGT risk a little farther eastward into VT. Strong instability should develop across western/central NY this afternoon, with the potential for thunderstorm development along the trailing outflow boundary from the aforementioned activity. A combination of 30-40 kt mid-level flow and cooling temperatures aloft may result in a few strong/severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds through the evening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 07/20/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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