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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, July 2, 2021

SPC Jul 2, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 02 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with downburst winds and large hail will be possible across a portion of the central and northern Plains later Saturday afternoon into the evening. ...Central through Northern Plains areas... A weak to modest northwesterly upper-flow regime will reside across the central and northern Plains Saturday. Upper trough now situated over eastern MT will move slowly east through the northern Plains. A lee trough / dryline will extend southward through the northern and central High Plains during the day, while a cold front advances into northeast MT and northern ND during the late afternoon and evening. Corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector to the east of the lee trough and beneath the eastern fringe of steeper mid-level lapse rates, resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the central and eastern Dakotas into the central High Plains as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Convergence and deep mixing along lee trough / dryline should promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across the central High Plains with additional storms spreading east off the higher terrain. Farther north the phasing between the shortwave trough and dryline will not be ideal for high storm coverage over the northern Plains. However, at least isolated storms may develop by late afternoon across a portion of the central Dakotas. In both of these regimes vertical wind profiles will remain weak to modest with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear supporting mostly multicells, but some marginal supercell structures will also be possible. Some upscale growth into one or more MCSs may occur during the evening, especially across the southern High Plains where greater storm coverage is expected. A few locally strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail may occur with the stronger storms from late afternoon into the evening. ..Dial.. 07/02/2021 Read more LIVE:
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