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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, July 18, 2021

SPC Jul 18, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely across much of the Southeast and Carolinas as well as the Four Corners Region and Southwest on Monday. Severe thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be low. ...Synopsis... The overall upper pattern on Monday is not expected to be much different from the past couple of days. A strong upper ridge centered over the Rockies will envelop much of the western U.S. into the Plains. Across the east, a couple of upper shortwave troughs embedded in larger-scale troughing from the Lower/Middle MS Valley to the Northeast will slowly migrate eastward. At the surface, a weak cold front will likely extend from western OK/northwest TX eastward/northeastward through the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The front will weaken while sagging southward through the day. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of this feature will result in widespread thunderstorm activity from Texas into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, generally weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude organized severe thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, high PW values and pockets of steeper low level lapse rates could result in sporadic wet microburst and a few strong gusts are possible. ...OK/TX Panhandle Vicinity... Some guidance is showing a weak signal that is not consistent across the board that a low-end severe threat could develop across parts of the OK/TX Panhandle Monday afternoon. Some forecast guidance is depicting a weak shortwave impulse or MCV emanating from overnight convection across western KS could augment vertical shear in the vicinity of the surface cold front such that a few strong cells or loosely organized cluster could develop during the afternoon. If this occurs, strong instability coupled with steep low level lapse rates and relatively higher-based storms, could support damaging wind gusts. Confidence is low in this scenario given multiple rounds of convection expected across the area over the next 24 hours, precluding severe probabilities at this time, but probs could become necessary in later outlooks if confidence increases. ..Leitman.. 07/18/2021 Read more LIVE: