SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across a portion of the Central Plains with isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon evening from northern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley and the Northeast. ...Central High Plain region... Low amplitude upper ridge is in place across the Central Plains. However, weak perturbations continue to move through the northern periphery of this feature. At the surface mid 60s F dewpoints reside beneath steep mid-level lapse rates resulting in a corridor of moderate instability with up to 2000 j/kg MLCAPE. As the boundary layer continues to destabilize and cap weakens storms will likely develop over the higher terrain including the Black Hills as well as along a lee trough/dryline feature and spread southeast through the warm sector later this afternoon. Up to 35 kt effective bulk shear may be sufficient for some of the initial storms to develop updraft rotation. Storm coverage is somewhat uncertain, but some evolution into one or more clusters will be possible into the evening. Isolated damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats. ...Ohio Valley through northern Arkansas... A moist boundary layer resides south of a convectively reinforced boundary that extends from northern PA through the OH Valley and into northern AR. A couple of MCVs are evident within the precipitation band along and north of this boundary. The warm sector will continue to destabilize with moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) this afternoon. Storms are already in the process of intensifying from southern IN through southern IL where strong diabatic heating is occurring. While vertical shear will remain weak to modest (25-35 kt), storms may organize into line segments and become capable of producing isolated damaging wind through early evening. ...Maine... See swomcd 1297. ..Dial/Jirak.. 07/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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